Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Honduras
  • Canada
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Trinidad and Tobago

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $891,160$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{912,069.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 142.0)}}\) (asimptote \(912,069.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $88,924$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,365.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(89,365.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,545$ on 2020-10-25

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,635,966$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,541,053.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,541,053.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $225,229$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218,379.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 94.9)}}\) (asimptote \(218,379.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,987,859$ on 2020-10-25

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $129,200$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131,658.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.3)}}\) (asimptote \(131,658.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,633$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,712.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,712.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,336$ on 2020-10-25

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,214$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,949.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 144.9)}}\) (asimptote \(92,949.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,623$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,710.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,710.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,595$ on 2020-10-25

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $218,874$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,903.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 113.8)}}\) (asimptote \(191,903.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,995$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,184.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,184.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,685$ on 2020-10-25

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,088$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,290.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 195.6)}}\) (asimptote \(128,290.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,282$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,659.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 191.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,659.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,769$ on 2020-10-25

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,527$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,190.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(127,190.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,223$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,752.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,752.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,653$ on 2020-10-25

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,787$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,935.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 137.0)}}\) (asimptote \(102,935.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,644$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,464.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 116.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,464.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,926$ on 2020-10-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 71%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 46%
Dominican Republic recovered 44%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,585$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,187.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 126.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,187.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $949$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{920.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 124.8)}}\) (asimptote \(920.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,378$ on 2020-10-25

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,511$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,541.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 181.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,541.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $105$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 179.7)}}\) (asimptote \(117.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,321$ on 2020-10-25