Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $891,160$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{912,069.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 142.0)}}\) (asimptote \(912,069.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $88,924$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,365.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(89,365.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,545$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,635,966$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,541,053.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,541,053.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $225,229$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{218,379.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 94.9)}}\) (asimptote \(218,379.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,987,859$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $129,200$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131,658.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.3)}}\) (asimptote \(131,658.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,633$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,712.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,712.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,336$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $93,214$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,949.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 144.9)}}\) (asimptote \(92,949.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,623$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,710.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,710.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,595$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $218,874$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,903.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 113.8)}}\) (asimptote \(191,903.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,995$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,184.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,184.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,685$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,088$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,290.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 195.6)}}\) (asimptote \(128,290.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,282$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,659.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 191.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,659.8\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,769$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $124,527$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,190.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(127,190.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,223$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,752.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,752.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,653$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,787$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,935.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 137.0)}}\) (asimptote \(102,935.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,644$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,464.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 116.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,464.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,926$ on 2020-10-25